Joubert says there are also regional factors at play. “For instance, Manitoba’s a relatively stable economy because it’s diversified,” he says. He gives the East Coast and Ottawa as other stable regions, given their high density of publicly funded, public sector organizations. “And so there may be some regions that may not be as impacted as others,” he says. “Alberta is one region that is a resource-based economy, and then there could be some implications there that might be more serious than other parts of the country. There’s no science behind this, but it’s reality.”

Joubert further points out that associates are an extremely valuable resource to firms, and they can’t do the work without them. There are plenty of reasons to want to keep high-performing associates on for as long as they possibly can — until the economy picks up again. Many resources have gone into training and development. A report conducted by Catalyst pegged the investment that’s put into a third-year associate at $315,000.

“I think law firms in Canada appreciate the fact that, with respect to the associates that they have now, that they’ve invested a lot of time in mentoring and training those associates,” says Joubert, “and I think before law firms will look to laying off associates, they’ll look at doing other things, and maybe perhaps even a salary freeze so that they could keep those associates.”

Getting rid of associates too quickly could lead to bigger problems down the road, explains Joubert. “Because if they lay off associates, the danger is there that all of the sudden there would be a void in their lawyer compliment. And when the economy starts to pick up, there’s a ramp-up period which could be difficult for law firms to recruit new lawyers to fill in those gaps, in a period of time that could be very, very competitive.”

Gage says her firm makes a long-term commitment when it goes through the process of hiring and training an associate, so it wants to keep that person with the firm for as long as possible. She says she thinks a part of that attitude comes from the differences in the labour market between Canada and other parts of the world.

“Speaking more broadly about the differences in the market, I think the models are very different, particularly as between New York firms and Toronto firms,” says Gage. “My sense is that a lot of the New York firms tend to view associates as more of a fungible commodity than certainly we do here at Ogilvy Renault. We make a long-term investment in people, that’s our approach, it’s very much a long-term one. Hiring associates, training them, bringing them up to speed is an expensive proposition, and it makes sense to us that if we make that kind of investment in people it’s certainly our hope that they will want to be with us for a while, and we want them to be with us for a while. It’s less of a volatile personnel market, at our firm at least.”

Joubert says firms take all of these factors into account when looking at decisions to terminate positions. “So I think, generally speaking, law firms are aware of that and they’re aware of that brain trust that they have, and that they’ll make every effort to keep that in place because they still have to service clients,” he says. “And while client needs may decrease in some areas, there’s potential that they’ll increase in other areas, so they still have to service clients throughout this.”

Gage says the associates at her firm don’t appear to be showing a great deal of concern over the longevity of their positions right now. “We’ve completed our review cycle, people have already received their compensation information for 2009, so I think that gives people some sense of security that if decisions were going to be made, we would have communicated that to them by now.”

If established lawyers are in a safer position, things may not be quite as rosy for articling students looking to move into an associate spot. “If law firms are focusing on trying to keep their associates and stabilize their staff and lawyer compliment, they may not necessarily take on as many students to start off with, and they may not necessarily keep on as many students as they have in the past,” says Joubert.

Articling students might not be feeling as safe as associates. “I know that the articling students, looking at hire-back decisions which will be made this spring, are probably experiencing some anxiety,” says Gage.

Chris Donald, one of the managing partners of Saskatoon-based Robertson Stromberg Pedersen LLP, told Canadian Lawyer his firm was beginning to show some additional restraint with its new hires. “[Five] months ago, if the right person had come along, we’d have snapped them up right away. Now we’re saying ‘hold on a second, better be a little careful here.’ Caution is creeping in.”

Caution appears to be the theme of the year for law firms across the country. There’s no doubt that hiring activity is slowing. While we haven’t witnessed massive layoffs and job cuts yet, there’s no telling what’s to come. “It involves some crystal-ball gazing, to some extent,” says Joubert. Associates will want to make sure they’re doing everything in their power to find new business for the firm and prove themselves as a valuable part of the team.

“Who knows what 2009 will bring,” says Gage.